Predicting party switching in U.S. state legislatures

Identifier

etd-04142004-104615

Author

Dylan Scott Rickards, Louisiana State University and Agricultural and Mechanical CollegeFollow

Degree

Master of Arts (MA)

Department

Political Science

Document Type

Thesis

Abstract

Using a strategic politician model, I argue that we should be able to predict when legislators are going to switch parties by weighing the costs and benefits of party switching under different circumstances. Using variables that measure electoral risk and opportunities for advancement to higher office, an event history model is used to predict when individual legislators will switch. Although this is a rare occurrence, and electoral risk seems to play little in the decision to switch parties, we do find that opportunities for advancement and the relative power of the two parties (measured by offices held) has a noticeable effect on the phenomenon.

Date

2004

Document Availability at the Time of Submission

Release the entire work immediately for access worldwide.

Recommended Citation

Rickards, Dylan Scott, "Predicting party switching in U.S. state legislatures" (2004). LSU Master's Theses. 3553.
https://repository.lsu.edu/gradschool_theses/3553

Committee Chair

Robert Hogan

DOI

10.31390/gradschool_theses.3553