Degree

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Department

Civil and Environmental Engineering

Document Type

Dissertation

Abstract

Since Hurricane Katrina, transit evacuation service has been seen to serve critical needs in affected cities and an increasing number of hurricanes have struck the east coast where more people rely on public transportation to evacuate. Thus, it is important to model mode choice in evacuation for a better estimation of evacuation transit demand. In this study, a joint mode and destination type choice model was estimated based on multiple post-storm behavioral surveys from the northeastern seaboard to the Gulf coast. A Nested Logit model specification was used to estimate this joint choice model. The estimated model showed significant linkage between mode and destination type choice, which validated the choice of a nested structure for the model. Selected variables include both household and zonal characteristics, reflecting the attributes of alternatives, the characteristics of households, and the interactions between them. Almost all the selected variables are significant at a confidence level of 95%. The estimated model was then applied in different cases, where study area, study period, or zonal unit is different. Generally, it produced small prediction errors in most cases. To find out which factors (i.e. study area and zonal unit) have the greatest impact on model transferability, prediction errors were compared between cases. Overall, the findings of this study provide insight into the factors affecting mode and destination type choice of residents during hurricane evacuation. It also provides discussion on model transferability in applications with different characteristics.

Date

11-8-2017

Committee Chair

Wilmot, Chester

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