Title

Modeling the Louisiana local government fiscal module in a disequilibrium environment: A modified COMPAS model approach

Document Type

Article

Publication Date

12-3-2013

Abstract

The objective of this study is to assess and measure the relative forecasting performance of local government expenditures in Community Policy Analysis Models (COMPAS) during periods of supply/demand disequilibrium. We evaluate whether a fiscal module under the COMPAS framework (an equilibrium model) fits better under a disequilibrium economic en-vironment. We find that both a simple naïve model with one year lagged expenditure and a lagged expenditure model with revenue capacity variables significantly increased forecasting performance relative to the traditional supply/demand equilibrium model of the public sector. We also found weak evidence suggesting that in cases where the equilibrium model is used in a crosssectional setting, quantile regression may improve forecasting performance given the heterogeneity in the quantity and quality of preferences in public services. © 2013 MCRSA. All rights reserved.

Publication Source (Journal or Book title)

Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy

First Page

138

Last Page

156

This document is currently not available here.

Share

COinS