Date of Award

1980

Document Type

Dissertation

Degree Name

Doctor of Philosophy (PhD)

Abstract

The primary purpose of this study was to measure the effects of selected factors, such as changes in price, in supply and demand, and in government programs and policies, on the market for U.S. rice. The secondary objectives were to update, improve, refine, and further test against recent and present behavior a simulation model of the U.S. rice industry previously developed by the Agricultural Economics and Agribusiness Department of Louisiana State University; and to use the improved model to analyze the impact of certain government programs and policies on the U.S. rice market. Structural equations of the econometric model were updated and improved. The structural equations used were obtained with Three Stage Least Squares Technique. Refinements and adjustments were made to the simulation model to incorporate the supply equations and to make the model more representative of the present market situation. The periods studied were 1967 to 1971 and 1979 to 1985. Based on 500 iterations (3000 and 3500 observations), summary and annual results were reported for the various periods studied, in terms of mean, range and coefficient of variation. Frequency distribution was also used to analyze the stock management program. The policies which were analyzed are: (1) the effects of a land set-aside program, ranging from no land set-aside to 10, 20 and 30 percent set-aside, (2) the effects of an on farm reserve program on the U.S. rice market and (3) the effects of Japanese dumping of rice on the world market on U.S. rice exports and prices. The model was used to predict the future behavior of the U.S. rice market from 1979 to 1985, based on the assumption that present conditions will prevail in the future. Acreage planted of rice and price for rice were increasing slightly. Ending stocks were increasing and were very high throughout the period. Domestic and export demand were fairly constant throughout. A 10 percent set-aside program resulted in no substantial changes in the rice market. Prices were the same as with a no set-aside program. Income was slightly lower, but there was no chance of running out of stocks. The 20 and 30 percent set-aside program resulted in serious changes in the market with higher prices and income. Both domestic use and export sales decreased and the chances of running out of stocks during the period were great. The on farm reserve program showed increased production, a lowering of prices and income. Domestic use and export sales increased as prices remained fairly low, but constant. The chance of running out of stocks was zero. Japanese dumping of rice in the world market had severe impacts on prices. Prices remained low. Exports decreased after the first year of dumping, but increased again. An examination of the prediction of the various programs studied gives a clear indication that the model is a fair representation of U.S. rice market behavior. The results of each policy analyzed can serve as a guide to program administrators in the future implementation of any of these policy options.

Pages

133

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